Monday, February 4, 2013

Let’s test your endurance...

The intention is good, but with their own policy differences, can the Euro zone countries successfully execute the stress test?

What works for one might not work for another! Policy makers at the European Union seem to have simply ignored this age-old saying. They have not only instructed the Committee of European Bank Supervisors to organise a stress test on the European banking system, but are also planning to keep the exercise similar to the ones recently completed in the US and UK. And, no wonder, the decision seems to be in a hurry!

Raison d’ĂȘtre: European banks are under immense pressure. As per the European Central Bank (ECB), lenders in the Euro zone will have to write off $283 billion in the next two years as loans to corporations and households go bad. In fact, Moody’s has just slashed the credit ratings of 25 Spanish banks, arguing that the speed and severity of Spain’s recession will inevitably hit their balance sheets. And that’s the case with almost all member states. “Policy-makers and market participants will have to be alert in the period ahead. The credit cycle has not yet reached a trough,” says the latest Financial Stability Report from ECB.

Moreover, there has been no clear policy initiative till now to force European banks to raise their capital cushions, despite the fact that the region has the biggest problem with toxic assets. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global banking system holds $2.8 trillion in toxic assets, with a little over half – $1.426 trillion – on the books of Western European banks, while US banks account for only $1.05 trillion. In fact, IMF estimates that it would take a fresh $975 billion to recapitalise Western European banks to levels that prevailed in the mid-1990s, compared to $500 billion for the US banks.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPMMalay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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