As the party rank and file clamour for the Gujarat strongman as BJP's poll mascot, its leaders are not so sure. Anil Pandey reports.
At the capital's Talkatora Stadium, an iconic and imposing structure in the heart of Lutyen's Delhi, Narendra Modi was king. The BJP's top brass was there: five party chief ministers, a deputy Chief Minister, MPs, MLAs, state and district presidents, representatives of unions and cooperatives headed by the BJP and just about everyone who mattered in the saffron brotherhood.
Yet it was the Gujarat Chief Minister who held centre stage, making it mandatory for all present to mention him in glowing terms – every mention, in turn, becoming an occasion for another round of crescendo and chest thumping. In the process, Modi became the first second generation leader of the BJP to get the kind of applause once reserved for the likes of Atal Behari Vajpayee.
The BJP's two-day Rashtriya Parishad or National Council meeting may be a relatively low key event in the party's calendar, but its significance cannot be underrated. It is a council which guides important party workers and leaders from across the land. According to one insider, resolutions adopted there should be treated as the prevailing line for party functionaries, an unofficial central party directive. Close to 5,000 workers attended and they included virtually the entire gamut of BJP's elected members.
While the BJP leadership and its parent body RSS may be on the horns of the biggest dilemma of their lives – whether or not to formally nominate Narendra Modi as the party candidate for the 2014 General Elections - there was little doubt that among the rank and file, Modi is the man who they look to revive the sagging fortunes of the party which was ousted in the 2004 General Elections.
A sombre occasion like this wore a remarkably festive air, thanks to the bearded visage of BJP's most famous face. Youth activists present sang in a single file: `What is the country's energy? Narendra Modi, Narendra Modi.' As far as the BJP workers were concerned, he had already been anointed Prime Minister of India.
Says Pavan Agrawal, member of the party's Yuva Morcha:“the party worker are vociferously demanding that Modi be declared the official candidate of the BJP for 2014. His development agenda has electrified the nation and for us workers, it is a shot in the arm like nothing else.”
But behind all the hunky dory, the saffron family is in the midst of one of its biggest debates; while workers and the common party worker may favour Modi strongly, can the same be said about BJP's top ranking leaders? Insiders say the party leadership believes that the 2014 election campaign should be a team effort instead of focusing too sharply on the controversial Gujarat strongman. The RSS too believes that while Modi will be a prominent face during the campaign, he must not be projected as the PM candidate.
When asked by reporters whether Modi would be the poll mascot, national spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad told reporters that the “National Council does not decide on the PM candidate, the party's parliamentary board does.”
There are many reasons for BJP's dilemma. Modi may be the darling of hero worshiping party workers but senior leaders have other compulsions – some fairly personal. It is an open secret in political circles that at the party's central headquarters on Delhi's Ashoka Road, Modi has more enemies than friends. The RSS too is not unaware that Modi's rivals in Ashoka Road far outnumber those at the Congress headquarters on neighbouring Akbar Road.
The biggest stumbling block to Modi – ironically - is senior BJP statesman LK Advani. Back in the 1990s, Modi was handpicked by the former as one of the party's bright young sparks, a job which Advani did with great finesse then. But today things are different. At the council, the former deputy Prime Minister of India picked out Sushma Swaraj and Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan as solid performers. For Sushma, Advani went the extra mile: “Vajpayee's speech used to give me a complex, now Sushma is doing the same,” he said. In the process, he was just clarifying that the party has more than Modi as the sole option for 2014.
There are other contenders as well. Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh, Venkiah Naidu and even Ananth Kumar fancy their chances once the numbers are out in the open and coalitions are put into place.
Insiders say that the moment Modi's name is made public, other contenders in the party will either go into the sabotage mode or stop working all together. Plus, the Gujarat Chief Minister's independence and strong will is another sore point for the Sangh and others in the saffron family; they know first hand what it is to get shafted by Modi in Gujarat.
Modi's anti-minority image, however, remains his biggest stumbling block. The RSS and BJP leadership remains uncertain just how the Muslim vote bank will react if Modi is declared the official candidate. The country's significant 15 per cent Muslim vote will be crucial in forming the new government at the centre and a number of regional parties may then avoid tying up with the NDA with Modi as figure head.
Some statistics are telling. Figures available with the All India Council for Muslim Economic Upliftment suggest that there are 60 districts in India where Muslims constitute 20 percent or more of the voters; there are 20 districts where the Muslim population exceeds 40 percent. While politically crucial UP has 19 percent Muslim voters, Bihar is perched at 17. Between UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Kashmir, there are close to 200 Lok Sabha seats and it is more than clear that anyone who forms a government at Delhi cannot do so antagonising such a powerful vote bank.
Says analyst Subrokamal Datta: “polarisation of Hindu-Muslim vote is certain if Modi is declared the official BJP candidate. In the end, it may actually help the Congress who will get block Muslim votes as it is only they who are capable of keeping Modi out.” That is a chance no one in the BJP is willing to take.
Says one senior BJP leader, “earlier the US was the Muslim's main enemy. Today it is Modi. The Muslims will pull out all stops to keep him at bay. A large portion of votes may also go in favour of powerful regional parties who command a strong Muslim following, leading, perhaps even to a Third Front.”
But Modi's supporters point that in Gujarat during the 2012 assembly elections, Muslims too backed the BJP. According to them, there were 66 assembly seats in Gujarat which have a Muslim population of 10 percent or more. Here the BJP won 40 seats. In assembly seats where the Muslim population exceeds 15 percent, the BJP took 21 out of 34 seats. On seats where Muslims constituted up to half of the population, saffronites nagged nine. Great statistics, but can Gujarat be replicated in India? His rivals say it is not possible because the Congress is non-existent in the state and the Muslims have no options.
At the capital's Talkatora Stadium, an iconic and imposing structure in the heart of Lutyen's Delhi, Narendra Modi was king. The BJP's top brass was there: five party chief ministers, a deputy Chief Minister, MPs, MLAs, state and district presidents, representatives of unions and cooperatives headed by the BJP and just about everyone who mattered in the saffron brotherhood.
Yet it was the Gujarat Chief Minister who held centre stage, making it mandatory for all present to mention him in glowing terms – every mention, in turn, becoming an occasion for another round of crescendo and chest thumping. In the process, Modi became the first second generation leader of the BJP to get the kind of applause once reserved for the likes of Atal Behari Vajpayee.
The BJP's two-day Rashtriya Parishad or National Council meeting may be a relatively low key event in the party's calendar, but its significance cannot be underrated. It is a council which guides important party workers and leaders from across the land. According to one insider, resolutions adopted there should be treated as the prevailing line for party functionaries, an unofficial central party directive. Close to 5,000 workers attended and they included virtually the entire gamut of BJP's elected members.
While the BJP leadership and its parent body RSS may be on the horns of the biggest dilemma of their lives – whether or not to formally nominate Narendra Modi as the party candidate for the 2014 General Elections - there was little doubt that among the rank and file, Modi is the man who they look to revive the sagging fortunes of the party which was ousted in the 2004 General Elections.
A sombre occasion like this wore a remarkably festive air, thanks to the bearded visage of BJP's most famous face. Youth activists present sang in a single file: `What is the country's energy? Narendra Modi, Narendra Modi.' As far as the BJP workers were concerned, he had already been anointed Prime Minister of India.
Says Pavan Agrawal, member of the party's Yuva Morcha:“the party worker are vociferously demanding that Modi be declared the official candidate of the BJP for 2014. His development agenda has electrified the nation and for us workers, it is a shot in the arm like nothing else.”
But behind all the hunky dory, the saffron family is in the midst of one of its biggest debates; while workers and the common party worker may favour Modi strongly, can the same be said about BJP's top ranking leaders? Insiders say the party leadership believes that the 2014 election campaign should be a team effort instead of focusing too sharply on the controversial Gujarat strongman. The RSS too believes that while Modi will be a prominent face during the campaign, he must not be projected as the PM candidate.
When asked by reporters whether Modi would be the poll mascot, national spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad told reporters that the “National Council does not decide on the PM candidate, the party's parliamentary board does.”
There are many reasons for BJP's dilemma. Modi may be the darling of hero worshiping party workers but senior leaders have other compulsions – some fairly personal. It is an open secret in political circles that at the party's central headquarters on Delhi's Ashoka Road, Modi has more enemies than friends. The RSS too is not unaware that Modi's rivals in Ashoka Road far outnumber those at the Congress headquarters on neighbouring Akbar Road.
The biggest stumbling block to Modi – ironically - is senior BJP statesman LK Advani. Back in the 1990s, Modi was handpicked by the former as one of the party's bright young sparks, a job which Advani did with great finesse then. But today things are different. At the council, the former deputy Prime Minister of India picked out Sushma Swaraj and Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan as solid performers. For Sushma, Advani went the extra mile: “Vajpayee's speech used to give me a complex, now Sushma is doing the same,” he said. In the process, he was just clarifying that the party has more than Modi as the sole option for 2014.
There are other contenders as well. Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh, Venkiah Naidu and even Ananth Kumar fancy their chances once the numbers are out in the open and coalitions are put into place.
Insiders say that the moment Modi's name is made public, other contenders in the party will either go into the sabotage mode or stop working all together. Plus, the Gujarat Chief Minister's independence and strong will is another sore point for the Sangh and others in the saffron family; they know first hand what it is to get shafted by Modi in Gujarat.
Modi's anti-minority image, however, remains his biggest stumbling block. The RSS and BJP leadership remains uncertain just how the Muslim vote bank will react if Modi is declared the official candidate. The country's significant 15 per cent Muslim vote will be crucial in forming the new government at the centre and a number of regional parties may then avoid tying up with the NDA with Modi as figure head.
Some statistics are telling. Figures available with the All India Council for Muslim Economic Upliftment suggest that there are 60 districts in India where Muslims constitute 20 percent or more of the voters; there are 20 districts where the Muslim population exceeds 40 percent. While politically crucial UP has 19 percent Muslim voters, Bihar is perched at 17. Between UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Kashmir, there are close to 200 Lok Sabha seats and it is more than clear that anyone who forms a government at Delhi cannot do so antagonising such a powerful vote bank.
Says analyst Subrokamal Datta: “polarisation of Hindu-Muslim vote is certain if Modi is declared the official BJP candidate. In the end, it may actually help the Congress who will get block Muslim votes as it is only they who are capable of keeping Modi out.” That is a chance no one in the BJP is willing to take.
Says one senior BJP leader, “earlier the US was the Muslim's main enemy. Today it is Modi. The Muslims will pull out all stops to keep him at bay. A large portion of votes may also go in favour of powerful regional parties who command a strong Muslim following, leading, perhaps even to a Third Front.”
But Modi's supporters point that in Gujarat during the 2012 assembly elections, Muslims too backed the BJP. According to them, there were 66 assembly seats in Gujarat which have a Muslim population of 10 percent or more. Here the BJP won 40 seats. In assembly seats where the Muslim population exceeds 15 percent, the BJP took 21 out of 34 seats. On seats where Muslims constituted up to half of the population, saffronites nagged nine. Great statistics, but can Gujarat be replicated in India? His rivals say it is not possible because the Congress is non-existent in the state and the Muslims have no options.
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